Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered the Spring Statement 2026 on the 3rd of March, just four months after the Autumn Budget 2025.
Unlike the Autumn Budget, which introduced a wide range of tax and spending changes, this Spring Statement contained no new tax increases or cuts. This article covers the forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, alongside spending commitments that were announced at the Spring Statement 2026.
We’ve pulled together the key points so you can see what the latest announcements mean for you.
Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) Economic Forecasts
The OBR revised several of its key projections at the Spring Statement. Here’s what changed.
GDP Growth
The OBR lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%, reflecting a cooling labour market and subdued business confidence. Looking further ahead, projections for 2027 and 2028 were revised upward to 1.6% in both years, compared to 1.5% at the time of the Autumn Budget 2025. GDP per person is forecast to grow by 5.6% over the course of this Parliament.
Inflation
Inflation is expected to average 2.3% across 2026. The OBR now projects a return to the government’s 2% target in the second half of 2026, earlier than the timeline set out at the Autumn Budget 2025.
Unemployment
The OBR revised its unemployment forecasts, reflecting a labour market that softened in the second half of 2025, with redundancy rates rising. Unemployment is projected to reach 5.3% in 2026, up from 4.75% in 2025, before gradually declining to 4.1% by 2030.
Government Borrowing and Debt
Government borrowing is projected at £133 billion in 2025/26, down from £153 billion in 2024/25, the lowest level in six years. The OBR forecasts further reductions each year through to 2030/31, when borrowing is expected to fall to £59 billion.
Government debt stood at 93% of GDP at the end of 2024/25. The OBR projects this will rise to 96% of GDP by 2028/29, before edging back to around 95% by 2030/31.
The Chancellor’s fiscal headroom against her rule not to borrow for day-to-day spending increased to £23.6 billion, up from £21.7 billion at the Autumn Budget 2025. Headroom against the separate rule, which requires government debt to fall as a share of GDP, stood at £27.1 billion.
Housing
If you own a home or have a mortgage, there are a couple of forecasts worth being aware of. The number of new houses is expected to fall to 220,000 new homes in 2026/27, down from an average of 260,000 per year in the early 2020s, before recovering to 305,000 per year by 2030/31.
Average interest rates on existing mortgages are projected to rise from 4.1% in 2026 to 4.5% by 2030, a more modest increase than suggested at the Autumn Budget 2025.
SEND Funding
The Spring Statement 2026 confirmed £3.5 billion in additional funding for the Department for Education in 2028/29, to support reforms to the Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) provision. This includes £1.8 billion in additional funding for devolved governments.
What Does This Mean for You?
The Spring Statement 2026 was primarily a forecast update; no new taxes were introduced or removed. That said, the revised economic projections may have indirect implications for your business or personal finances.
View a full summary of the tax and spending changes introduced at the Autumn Budget 2025.
If you’d like to understand how these updates may affect your business or personal tax position, we’re happy to help. Get in touch to find out how DS Burge & Co can help you navigate what’s ahead.